Wired Magazine recently published an article declaring the demise of the Web.

Since we at Bytemobile spend a lot of time processing and analyzing the network traffic of mobile operators around the world*, we were surprised. Our experience leads us to very different conclusions.

Let’s start with the area graph using Cisco data. While we agree with the data, we disagree with the use of traffic volumes to infer usage patterns.

The average video generates more than 30 times the traffic volume of the average web page. In other words, a user would have to visit 30-plus web pages to generate the same amount of traffic as one video. This ratio becomes even more skewed as users watch more long-form video from providers such as Hulu and Netflix. While video is the fastest growing form of traffic in terms of volume, it is hardly stealing usage from web pages. Video-generated traffic volume growth can be driven by a number of factors in addition to increased usage, such as longer durations or higher video quality. It is inaccurate to extrapolate traffic volume to usage patterns and conclude that users are moving away from the Web.

Wireless Data Traffic Mix – By Geographic Region

Source: Bytemobile Mobile Minute Metrics Report, February 2010

We also disagree with Wired’s classification of video as being separate from the Web. Video is an integral part of the Web. Most video is delivered from websites such as YouTube through a web browser. Further, videos are searchable and can be linked just as web pages are. Analysis of tier-one 3G networks worldwide shows that more than 95% of video traffic is delivered over HTTP on port 80 - just as web pages are. Video is simply another form of content on the Web. 

As far as apps supplanting the browsed Web are concerned, while apps are experiencing tremendous growth on smartphones, the browser still generates a major portion of the traffic. In fact, web browsing generates as much traffic as all apps combined – about 30% browser, 30% apps, 40% video, according to our network data.

iPhone Data Traffic Distribution by Highest Bandwidth-Consuming Applications

Source: Bytemobile Mobile Minute Metrics Report, February 2010

Moreover, apps are built primarily on web infrastructure. They use the same technologies that are used by browsers, such as HTML, HTTP, JPEG, XML, and others. Therefore, while apps may change the way that users consume content, they are still very much a part of the Web.

What we see changing is not the Web itself, but rather the channels that consumers are using to interact with the Web. Far from being dead, the Web is alive, well and thriving. And growing.

- Girish Wadhwani

*See Bytemobile’s quarterly Mobile Minute Metrics reports for more information.

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Yesterday, ABI Research announced a new and very timely report, titled “Mobile Network Offloading”.

Noteworthy excerpts from ABI’s news release (italics ours):

The serious, well-publicized traffic overloads (including content data and radio signaling) that are starting to choke many mobile networks will only worsen as smartphones and other mobile devices proliferate, and operators must extend capacity. Brute force network expansion, requiring a doubling of capacity, isn’t an option.

Instead, several approaches and technologies will play specific roles in relieving network congestion. These include Wi-Fi, femtocells, mobile CDNs (content delivery networks), media optimization, and more.

“Each of these offload and optimization technologies is aimed at solving a particular problem and they will all coexist.” – Aditya Kaul, Practice Director, ABI Research

One of the most effective tools is media optimization – effectively improved compression – which is already being used widely. Media optimization will grow the fastest and deliver the greatest traffic reduction of all these methods.

For more information on the ABI report, click here.

-Tod Bottari
 

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Image courtesy of Dustin D’Amour via the Creative Commons attribution license.

Some thoughts on Hewlett-Packard’s acquisition of Palm:

Palm, a pioneer in the smartphone business, was acquired for $1.2 billion by Hewlett-Packard this week. With this deal, the battle of the smartphone market just got edgier and more interesting. Responding to questions on the announcement, Vice President of Hewlett-Packard’s Personal Systems Group Todd Bradley said the market for mobile phones is “large, profitable and growing.” HP sees smartphones as a “very early stage market” and wants to compete with its own product.

Check out the live blog on HP’s announcement at The Wall Street Journal.

Initial media reactions:

Long story short, HP just (re)entered the mobile space in a major way. And look for webOS eventually to be used across the range of HP products. – TechCrunch

It's clear that smartphones are becoming better and better at replacing full-fledged computers for many tasks, and Dell and HP clearly don't want to be forgotten when everyone is debating Andoid or iPhone with the same vigor once saved for OS X vs. Windows. We say: Bring it on. - Switched

-Subhi Andrews

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The second of two CTIA panel sessions sponsored by Bytemobile was held at 1:15 p.m. on March 24. The session was moderated by Heavy Reading Senior Analyst Patrick Donegan and featured executives from Allot Communications, a deep packet inspection vendor; Camiant, a policy control vendor and Bytemobile partner; Cricket Communications, a North American carrier and Bytemobile customer; Nokia Siemens Networks, a core network infrastructure vendor; and Bytemobile, represented by Vice President of Product Management Joel Brand.

Much of the discussion focused on the relative importance and positioning of DPI and policy enforcement solutions in the evolved packet core of the 4G network environment. The respective vendors made their cases, while Cricket network engineering director Chris Demange addressed the operator’s requirements for a distributed network architecture, which include functional solutions from a broad range of best-of-breed providers. Joel commented on the need to modify – rather than merely inspect – high-bandwidth content such as video in order to manage rapid growth in traffic.

A highlight of the session occurred during the audience Q&A segment at the end. The panel was asked whether operators in Europe were considering video optimization and how relevant it would be in the roll-out of LTE networks. The other panel members deferred to Joel, who delivered our core argument that network congestion will persist regardless of bandwidth expansion, as consumers adopt and aggressively use new applications and services across smartphones, laptops and other mobile devices. A prime example is video, which the audience acknowledged as the single largest contributor to traffic growth on 3G networks today.

In this context, Joel stated, “LTE is not a panacea.” He went on to point out that Bytemobile was the first in the industry to release a commercial video optimization solution, which is much in demand within our customer base.

-Stacey Infantino

Image courtesy of Neil Boothman via the Creative Commons attribution license.

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