Wired Magazine recently published an article declaring the demise of the Web.

Since we at Bytemobile spend a lot of time processing and analyzing the network traffic of mobile operators around the world*, we were surprised. Our experience leads us to very different conclusions.

Let’s start with the area graph using Cisco data. While we agree with the data, we disagree with the use of traffic volumes to infer usage patterns.

The average video generates more than 30 times the traffic volume of the average web page. In other words, a user would have to visit 30-plus web pages to generate the same amount of traffic as one video. This ratio becomes even more skewed as users watch more long-form video from providers such as Hulu and Netflix. While video is the fastest growing form of traffic in terms of volume, it is hardly stealing usage from web pages. Video-generated traffic volume growth can be driven by a number of factors in addition to increased usage, such as longer durations or higher video quality. It is inaccurate to extrapolate traffic volume to usage patterns and conclude that users are moving away from the Web.

Wireless Data Traffic Mix – By Geographic Region

Source: Bytemobile Mobile Minute Metrics Report, February 2010

We also disagree with Wired’s classification of video as being separate from the Web. Video is an integral part of the Web. Most video is delivered from websites such as YouTube through a web browser. Further, videos are searchable and can be linked just as web pages are. Analysis of tier-one 3G networks worldwide shows that more than 95% of video traffic is delivered over HTTP on port 80 - just as web pages are. Video is simply another form of content on the Web. 

As far as apps supplanting the browsed Web are concerned, while apps are experiencing tremendous growth on smartphones, the browser still generates a major portion of the traffic. In fact, web browsing generates as much traffic as all apps combined – about 30% browser, 30% apps, 40% video, according to our network data.

iPhone Data Traffic Distribution by Highest Bandwidth-Consuming Applications

Source: Bytemobile Mobile Minute Metrics Report, February 2010

Moreover, apps are built primarily on web infrastructure. They use the same technologies that are used by browsers, such as HTML, HTTP, JPEG, XML, and others. Therefore, while apps may change the way that users consume content, they are still very much a part of the Web.

What we see changing is not the Web itself, but rather the channels that consumers are using to interact with the Web. Far from being dead, the Web is alive, well and thriving. And growing.

- Girish Wadhwani

*See Bytemobile’s quarterly Mobile Minute Metrics reports for more information.

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The current trend in Europe is for mobile operators to become internet service providers (ISP).  Recently, an Austrian operator told me that this year it has sold more ISP connections than mobile connections.  In Sweden, mobile broadband is being offered at a price similar to that of fixed broadband, suggesting that Austria is not unique.

Over the last decade, mobile operators have slowly but surely eroded the hold that fixed operators have had on the consumer.  First, it was voice, and now it seems the same is happening for the Internet — witness the exponential rise in the popularity of the USB dongle.  The attraction for the user is obvious: one relationship for all services, no installation charges and the ability to be truly mobile.  Today, many operators offer a free laptop in exchange for an 18-month commitment.  How can you lose?

How will fixed line operators respond to this threat?  They have already made their network investments, so all they need to do now is utilize their assets.  With multimedia rapidly becoming a pervasive force, network capacity and effective bandwidth will be critical factors.  In such circumstances, won’t the fixed line operator have the upper hand?

I’m not so sure.  Mobility is a key criterion.  Freedom is something that users will always want; once they have it, they will never give it up.  For the vast majority of consumers, mobile networks will impose no bandwidth restrictions.  Operators are constantly investing in their networks.  Thanks to data optimization and media transcoding, most users will be hard-pressed to discern the difference between a fixed network and a mobile network — nor will they even care.  For mobile operators, there is also an effective one-to-one brand relationship with end users.  Thus, they can deliver a truly personalized and relevant consumer service across an entire portfolio of offerings — something that fixed line operators will find difficult if not impossible to match.

Infrastructure providers offering service delivery platforms to the consumer will turn up the heat on the ISP market.  When that happens, we should all expect some dramatic changes in the road ahead.

- Graham Carey

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