Wired Magazine recently published an article declaring the demise of the Web.

Since we at Bytemobile spend a lot of time processing and analyzing the network traffic of mobile operators around the world*, we were surprised. Our experience leads us to very different conclusions.

Let’s start with the area graph using Cisco data. While we agree with the data, we disagree with the use of traffic volumes to infer usage patterns.

The average video generates more than 30 times the traffic volume of the average web page. In other words, a user would have to visit 30-plus web pages to generate the same amount of traffic as one video. This ratio becomes even more skewed as users watch more long-form video from providers such as Hulu and Netflix. While video is the fastest growing form of traffic in terms of volume, it is hardly stealing usage from web pages. Video-generated traffic volume growth can be driven by a number of factors in addition to increased usage, such as longer durations or higher video quality. It is inaccurate to extrapolate traffic volume to usage patterns and conclude that users are moving away from the Web.

Wireless Data Traffic Mix – By Geographic Region

Source: Bytemobile Mobile Minute Metrics Report, February 2010

We also disagree with Wired’s classification of video as being separate from the Web. Video is an integral part of the Web. Most video is delivered from websites such as YouTube through a web browser. Further, videos are searchable and can be linked just as web pages are. Analysis of tier-one 3G networks worldwide shows that more than 95% of video traffic is delivered over HTTP on port 80 - just as web pages are. Video is simply another form of content on the Web. 

As far as apps supplanting the browsed Web are concerned, while apps are experiencing tremendous growth on smartphones, the browser still generates a major portion of the traffic. In fact, web browsing generates as much traffic as all apps combined – about 30% browser, 30% apps, 40% video, according to our network data.

iPhone Data Traffic Distribution by Highest Bandwidth-Consuming Applications

Source: Bytemobile Mobile Minute Metrics Report, February 2010

Moreover, apps are built primarily on web infrastructure. They use the same technologies that are used by browsers, such as HTML, HTTP, JPEG, XML, and others. Therefore, while apps may change the way that users consume content, they are still very much a part of the Web.

What we see changing is not the Web itself, but rather the channels that consumers are using to interact with the Web. Far from being dead, the Web is alive, well and thriving. And growing.

- Girish Wadhwani

*See Bytemobile’s quarterly Mobile Minute Metrics reports for more information.

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On a global scale, the mass migration to 3G network technology is yet to come. The chart below – produced by In-Stat, the mobile internet/digital entertainment market intelligence firm – indicates that in 2010, only 17% of the world’s 4.3 billion mobile subscribers are on 3G networks or higher. This means that 83% are unable to play video and access other high-bandwidth applications that the proliferating iPhone/Android community uses every day.

In the second half of 2008, a number of 3G networks began showing signs of stress due to traffic congestion caused by multimedia-hungry subscribers with powerful mobile devices. After years of investment to drive data adoption and fill their 3G pipes, the operators of these networks were now facing frustrated consumers forced to contend for bandwidth and watch stalling videos.

Two years later, the stress has become seriously aggravated and elicited public comments like the following from the AT&T CTO, in response to widespread criticism of network service quality: “We will move heaven and earth [to meet our customers’ growing data needs]” (VentureBeat – July 12, 2010).

The In-Stat data, corroborated by other industry sources such as Gartner and Morgan Stanley Research, makes it clear that the challenge to operators is still in its infancy. Moreover, it will continue to accelerate for the next decade and beyond, as a) more consumers adopt mobile data, b) more consumers upgrade to iPhone-/Android-class smartphones, and c) more networks advance to 3G and beyond.

-Tod Bottari

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Joel Brand, Bytemobile vice president of Product Management, was a guest at the TMC Executive Editorial Event in San Jose, CA. Brand spent the morning with senior members of TMC’s editorial and executive teams, participating in high-level discussions on the state of mobile data and Bytemobile’s role in the industry.  

Brand met with Erik Linask, group editorial director, TMC; Carl Ford, co-founder and vice president, Community Development, 4G Wireless Evolution; and Jim Spangenberg, director of Web Events, Internet Telephony. The discussion focused on the challenges facing wireless network operators – including network congestion, the user experience and subscriber churn – and provided an in-depth look at how Bytemobile’s optimization and policy control solutions enable its customers to address these challenges.

Brand also participated in a video interview with Rich Tehrani, CEO and group editor-in-chief, TMC. Be sure to check back for the clip, once the video has been posted live.

-Stacey Infantino

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